Part A: AI and Geopolitics

https://youtu.be/z7do1hhb6fE?si=6xugo132opdZxzEH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA-uvVUGBqQ

Introduction

The dawn of the AI era is being defined by an escalating competition between the United States and China, happening within the broader context of the end of Western domination of world history. While the West remains powerful, it is struggling to manage its relative decline and share power on the global stage. This is reflected in the US's strategic goal to "maintain unquestioned and unchallenged global technological dominance". In contrast, China's official plan emphasizes working together for an "inclusive... digital and intelligent future for all" , a collaborative posture that aligns with its proven long-term strategy of using economic partnership as a primary tool of influence. This was demonstrated when China became the first country to propose a free trade agreement with the ASEAN nations in 2001, a move that dramatically shifted the region's economic gravity over the next two decades. This geopolitical race raises a critical question for the rest of the world: who will truly benefit from the immense gains promised by AI, and what will the terms of partnership be?

This situation is not without historical precedent. In the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution in Europe created a massive demand for new raw materials like palm oil. What followed was a pattern of economic reshaping. At best, European powers advocated for abolishing the trans-Atlantic slave trade but supported or installed local regimes that facilitated the extraction of raw materials. At worst, they operated through powerful proxies, like warlords and merchants, who thrived in the power vacuums left by collapsing empires. In both cases, Africa’s economy was reshaped to serve European needs: it began to export low-value primary products while importing higher-priced European manufactured goods, creating a new and lasting cycle of economic dependency. This pattern of foreign interests operating through proxies to secure resources has continued, sometimes in shockingly overt ways, such as when former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher’s son, Mark Thatcher, was convicted for his role in financing the failed 2004 coup d'état attempt in oil-rich Equatorial Guinea. [You can watch an intriguing account of this here:: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lec6gbKYrtI].This history is not lost on the new wave of African leaders and its leadership class, who are painfully aware that many of their societies' contemporary problems are inherited from an economic structure designed to supply cheap raw materials to the West.

Today, the raw material of the AI revolution is data. Developing nations possess vast and valuable reserves of this new "digital oil." As American and Chinese tech giants expand their global reach, a similar dynamic is emerging. Will developing nations become true partners in the AI era, or will they become the 21st-century equivalent of palm oil plantations—sources of low-cost training data for foreign AI models, only to then import expensive, finished AI services?

However, some developing nations are actively working to change this dynamic, moving from being passive sources of raw materials to architects of their own digital futures. A prime example of a nation actively working to change this dynamic is Nigeria, where Cloud Sovereignty is a key priority being driven by the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA). The overarching goal is to ensure the Nigerian government has meaningful oversight over the technology and infrastructure being used within the country. This policy requires foreign companies to have "skin in the game" by investing locally and working with local partners as prerequisites for pursuing business unfettered and gaining access to government contracts. This is codified in a new data classification framework, and an updated national cloud policy which I had the unique privilege of helping to develop.

The framework mandates that international cloud service providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure must store sensitive data—especially from the finance, healthcare, and government sectors—within Nigeria's borders. The regulation aims to reduce the nation's reliance on foreign controlled cloud storage, improve national security, and force investment in local digital infrastructure. To continue operating in the country, these tech giants must now either build local data centers or form partnerships with Nigerian cloud providers. This policy is a key part of Nigeria's broader strategy to accelerate its own AI and digital transformation efforts by ensuring local control and investment in critical cloud infrastructure. This move is part of a global trend, where regulations like the EU's GDPR have had a similar effect, forcing US cloud providers to adapt their infrastructure and operations to meet local data sovereignty requirements.

Discussion Questions

  1. Kishore Mahbubani argues the West is reluctant to share power, while China employs long-term economic partnership as a strategy. How do the US and Chinese approaches described in the materials present different opportunities and risks for a developing nation seeking to build its AI capacity?
  2. Explain the parallel between palm oil in the 19th century and data in the 21st century. How could the AI revolution risk creating a new form of economic dependency for the developing world, similar to the one described in the historical text?
  3. In his 1788 petition, Olaudah Equiano made an economic argument that creating a new market in Africa would be in the "interest and advantage" of British manufacturers. How could a modern advocate for "AI equity" make a similar economic argument to a tech giant like Google or Baidu today?
  4. Mahbubani highlights China's use of a free trade agreement to build influence with ASEAN. How can Nigeria's data localization policy be seen as a modern strategy for a developing nation to build its own influence and set the terms of engagement with global tech giants?

References

Part B: AI in Resource Strapped Environments (Public Health)